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When War Games Go Live. Preparing to Attack Iran. “Simulating World War III”http://www.thetotalcollapse.com/when-war-games-go-live-preparing-to-attack-iran-simulating-world-war-iii/by TheTotalCollapse.com on January 11, 2012
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With
ongoing war games on both sides, armed hostilities between the
US-Israel led coalition and Iran are, according to Israeli military
analysts, “dangerously close”.
There has been a massive
deployment of troops which have been dispatched to the Middle East, not
to mention the redeployment of US and allied troops previously stationed
in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Nine thousand US troops have been
dispatched to Israel to participate in what is described by the Israeli
press as the largest joint air defense war exercise in Israeli history.
The
drill, called “Austere Challenge 12,” is scheduled to take place within
the next few weeks. Its stated purpose “is to test multiple Israeli and
US air defense systems, especially the “Arrow” system, which the
country specifically developed with help from the US to intercept
Iranian missiles.”
In the course of December, Iran conducted its
own war games with a major ten days naval exercise in the Strait of
Hormuz, (December 24, 2011- January 2, 2012).
Missile defense and
naval war games are being conducted simultaneously. While Israel and
the US are preparing to launch major naval exercises in the Persian
Gulf, Tehran has announced that it plans to conduct major naval
exercises in February.
An impressive deployment of troops and advanced military hardware is unfolding.
Meanwhile,
Israel has become a de facto US military outpost. US and Israeli
command structures are being integrated, with close consultations
between the Pentagon and Israel’s Ministry of Defense.
A large number of US troops will be stationed in Israel once the war games are completed.
The
assumption of this military deployment is the staging of a joint
US-Israeli air attack on Iran. Military escalation towards a regional
war is part of the military scenario.
Ultimately Israel is an American pawn.
The
people of Israel are the unspoken victims of US military ambitions,
which consist in the conquest and “recolonization” –under a US mandate–
of the Anglo-Persian oil empire.
The History of War Planning: “Theater Iran Near Term” (TIRANNT)
A
review of the history of war planning –including war games and
simulations– directed against Iran is essential to an understanding of
recent developments in the Persian Gulf.
Active war preparations
directed against Iran (with the involvement of Israel and NATO) were
initiated in May 2003, one month after the invasion and occupation of
Iraq. It should be understood that from the outset of these war
preparations, a World War III scenario was envisaged by US war planners.
The assumption of escalation was embedded in the simulations and the war games.
Moreover,
the war on Iran was formulated as a “Global Strike” plan involving
centralized military decision-making and coordination by US Strategic
Command (USSTRATCOM). A “Concept Plan” entitled CONPLAN 8022 was
established in 2003. The operational CONCEPT PLAN (CONPLAN) 8022 is
described as “an actual plan that the Navy and the Air Force translate
into strike package for their submarines and bombers.”
A
simulated scenario of an all out bombing campaign against Iran entitled
“Theater Iran Near Term” was implemented in May 2003. (To be noted,
there have been numerous simulations and war games which have remained
classified). .
Code named by US military planners as TIRANNT,
“Theater Iran Near Term” had identified several thousand targets inside
Iran as part of a “Shock and Awe” Blitzkrieg. (The analysis contained in
this section is based on my earlier 2007 article entitled Theater Iran
Near Term, Global Research, February 21, 2007)
“In early 2003,
even as U.S. forces were on the brink of war with Iraq, the Army had
already begun conducting an analysis for a full-scale war with Iran. The
analysis, called TIRANNT, for “theater Iran near term,” was coupled
with a mock scenario for a Marine Corps invasionand a simulation of the
Iranian missile force. U.S. and British planners conducted a Caspian Sea
war game around the same time. And Bush directed the U.S. Strategic
Command to draw up a global strike war plan for an attack against
Iranian weapons of mass destruction. All of this will ultimately feed
into a new war plan for ”major combat operations” against Iran that
military sources confirm now exists in draft form.
… Under TIRANNT,
Army and U.S. Central Command planners have been examining both
near-term and out-year scenarios for war with Iran, including all
aspects of a major combat operation, from mobilization and deployment of
forces through postwar stability operations after regime change.”
(William Arkin, The Pentagon Preps for Iran Washington Post, 16 April
2006, emphasis added)
What distinguishes the TIRANNT simulations
in relation to previous (pre-2003) war game scenarios, is that a) they
were conducted in the wake of the Iraq war and b) the Blitzkrieg
assumptions behind TIRANNT are similar to those used in the intense
March 2003 bombing campaign directed against Iraq.
In other
words, the bombing campaign scenarios under TIRANNT are not limited to
surgical strikes directed against Iran’s nuclear facilities. They also
involve an “invasion scenario”, the deployment of Marines Corps, as well
as “the mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability
operations after regime change.”
The assessment of these war
games is crucial in evaluating recent developments in the Persian Gulf
because it suggests that if an attack on Iran is implemented it will
inevitably evolve towards an all out bombing campaign as well as a
ground war.
Confirmed by Arkin, the active component of the Iran
military agenda was launched in May 2003 “when modelers and intelligence
specialists pulled together the data needed for theater-level (meaning
large-scale) scenario analysis for Iran.” (Arkin, op cit). In October
2003, different theater scenarios for an Iran war were contemplated:
“The
US army, navy, air force and marines have all prepared battle plans and
spent four years building bases and training for “Operation Iranian
Freedom”. Admiral Fallon, the new head of US Central Command, has
inherited computerized plans under the name TIRANNT (Theatre Iran Near
Term).” (New Statesman, 19 February 2007)
It is worth noting that
following the implementation of TIRANNT, starting in 2004, there was a
stepped up delivery of weapons systems to Israel.
Military Alliances. Simulating World War III
A World War III scenario has been the object of numerous simulations and war games, going back to the Cold War era.
We
have no details regarding the geopolitical assumptions underlying the
TIRANNT war scenarios, –i.e. regarding analysis of major military
actors, alliances, etc. From the available information, the simulations
pertained to an all out war (bombing campaign and ground war) directed
against Iran, without taking into account possible responses by Iran’s
allies, namely China and Russia.
In 2006, The Pentagon launched
another set of war simulations entitled Vigilant Shield 07 (conducted
from September through December 2006). These war simulations were not
limited to a single Middle East war theater as in the case of TIRANNT
(e.g. Iran), they also included Russia, China and North Korea.
The
core assumption behind Vigilant Shield 07 is “Global Warfare”. In the
light of recent war preparations directed against Iran, the Road to
Conflict in the Vigilant Shield 07 war games should be examined very
carefully. They anticipate the “New Cold War”. They reflect US foreign
policy and military doctrine during both the Bush and Obama
administrations. The declared enemies of America under Vigilant Shield
are Irmingham [Iran],Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya
[China]
Vigilant Shield 07 is a World War III Scenario which also includes an active and aggressive role for North Korea.
The
simulations are predicated on the assumption that Iran constitutes a
nuclear threat and that Russia and North Korea –which are allies of
Iran– will attack America and that America and its allies will wage a
pre-emptive (defensive) war.
While China is included in the
simulations as a threat as well as an enemy of America, it is not
directly involved, in the simulations, in attacking America.
The
war simulations commence with Iran and Russia conducting joint air
defense exercises, followed by nuclear testing by North Korea.
A
terrorist attack on America is also contemplated in Vigilant Shield 07
based on the assumption that the “axis of evil” “rogue states” are
supporting “non-State” terrorist organizations.
The diplomatic agenda is also envisaged as well as a media campaign to discredit Russia and Iran.
It
should be understood that the conduct of these war scenarios with
America under attack is also intended as an instrument of internal
propaganda within the upper the echelons of Military, Intelligence and
participating government agencies, with a view to developing a an
unbending consensus pertaining to the preemptive war doctrine, –i.e that
the threat against the “American Homeland” is “real” and that a
pre-emptive attack –including the use of US nuclear weapons– against
rogue enemies is justified. And that premeptive warfare is an instrument
of peacemaking which contributes to global security.
Irmingham [Iran], Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya [China]
Details and Sequencing: [emphasis added]
” Road to Conflict (RTC): 11 Sep – 15 Oct 06
Initial Irmingham Enrichment [indications and warning]
Initial Ruebeki & Irmingham Involvement
– Ruebek I&W, PACFLT [U.S. Pacific Fleet] Sub Deployments
– Initial Nemazee ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] I&W
– Initial MHLD [homeland defense?] I&W
Strategic IO [information operations (cyber warfare)] operations (Ruebek & Churya)
Ruebek & Irmingham Conduct Joint AD [air defense] Exercise
Phase 1 / Deployment: 4 – 8 Dec 06
– Rogue LRA [Russian long-range aviation] w/CALCM [conventional air launched cruise missile] Launch
– Continue Monitoring Strategic Situation
– Continue Monitoring Nemazee Situation
Possible Nuclear Testing
Probable ICBM Preparation
– Continue Monitoring MHLD Situation
Five VOIs [vessels of interest]
Churya Flagged VOI into Dutch Harbor Supports BMDS [ballistic missile defense system] Threat to Ft Greely
– Continue Monitoring IO Activities
Nemazee Conducts SLV [space launch vehicle] Launch – 8 Dec 06
Phase 2 Minus 42 Days:
Additional Nemazee ICBM Shipments to Launch Facilities
RMOB [Russian main operating bases] Acft Conduct LR Navigation Flights
AS-15 [nuclear armed cruise missile] Handling at RMOBs
– Minus 41 Days:
Additional Nemazee ICBM Preps at Launch Pad # 2
– Minus 40 Days:
Activity at Nemazee Nuclear Test Facilities
– Minus 35 Days:
DOS [Department of State] Travel Warning
– Minus 30 Days:
Ruebek LRA Deploys Acft to Anadyr & Vorkuta
Phase 2 Minus 30 Days:
Growing International Condemnation of Ruebek
Ruebek Deploys Submarines
– Minus 20 Days:
Nemazee Recalls Reservists
– Minus 14 Days:
DOS Draw-down Sequencing
– Minus 13 Days:
Ruebek Closes US Embassy in Washington DC
– Minus 11 Days:
Nemazee Conducts Fueling of Additional ICBMs
Ruebeki Presidential Statement on Possible US Attack
Phase 2 Minus 10 Days:
POTUS Addresses Congress on War Powers Act
– Minus 6 Days:
Ruebek President Calls Situation Grave
– Minus 5 Days:
CALCM Activity at Anadyr, Vorkuta, and Tiksi
Ruebeki SS-25 [nuclear armed mobile ICBMs] Conduct out of Garrison Deployments
Nemazee Assembling ICBM for Probable Launch
– Minus 4 Days:
Ruebek Closes US Embassy in Washington DC
Ruebek Acft Conduct Outer ADIZ [air defense identification zone] Pentrations
Mid-Air Collison w/NORAD Acft During ADIZ Penetration
Phase 2 Minus 4 Days:
Nemazee ICBM Launch Azimuth Threatens US
– Minus 3 Days:
NATO Diplomatic Efforts Fail to Diffuse Crisis
USAMB to Ruebek Recalled for Consultation
POTUS Addresses Nation
– Minus 2 Days:
Nemazee Leadership Movement
– Minus 1 Day:
Ruebek Expels US Mission
Phase 2 / Execution: 10 – 14 Dec 06
– Pre-Attack I & W
Imminent Terrorist Attack on Pentagon Suggests Pentagon COOP [continuity of operations plan]
Nemazee Conducts 2 x ICBM Combat Launches Against United States
Ruebek Conducts Limited Strategic Attack on United States
Wave 1 – 8 x Bear H Defense Suppression w/CALCM
Wave 2 – Limited ICBM & SLBM Attack
– 2 x ICBM Launched (1 impacts CMOC [Cheyenne Mountain], 1 malfunctions)
– 2 x SLBM Launched Pierside (1 impacts SITE-R ["Raven Rock" bunker on the Maryland-Pennsylvania border], 1 malfunctions)
– 3 x Bear H from Dispersal Bases w/ALCM (Eielson AFB, CANR, Cold Lake)
– US Conducts Limited Retaliatory Attack on Ruebek
1 x ICBM C2 Facility
1 x ICBM Against ICBM Launch Location
Phase 2 / Execution:
Ruebek Prepares Additional Attack on United States
Wave 3 Prepares for Additional Strategic Attacks
– 1 x ICBM Movement, NO Launch
– 3 x SLBM PACFLT Pierside Missile Handling Activity (NO Launch)
– 6 x BEAR H (launch & RTB [return to base]) w/6 x ALCM (NO launch)”
[source Northern Command and William Arkin] emphasis added
Complacency of Western Public Opinion
The complacency of Western public opinion (including segments of the US anti-war movement) is disturbing.
No
concern has been expressed at the political level as to the likely
consequences of a US-NATO-Israel attack on Iran using US and/or Israeli
nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state.
Moreover, public
opinion is led to believe that the war will be limited to surgical
strikes directed against Iran’s nuclear facilities and that neither
Russia nor China will intervene.
The war on Iran and the dangers
of escalation are not considered “front page news.” The mainstream media
has excluded in-depth analysis and debate on the implications of these
war plans.
The absence of public awareness, the complacency of
the antiwar movement as well as the weakness of organized social
movements indelibly contribute to the real possibility that this war
could be carried out, leading to the unthinkable: a nuclear holocaust
over a large part of the Middle East and Central Asia involving millions
of civilian casualties.
It should be noted that a nuclear nightmare would occur even if nuclear weapons are not used.
The
bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities using conventional weapons would
contribute to unleashing a Chernobyl-Fukushima type disaster with
extensive radioactive fallout.
Global Research, January 8, 2012
