Quote
Vaccine Induced Inflammation Linked to Epidemic of Type 2 Diabetes and
Metabolic Syndrome
Japanese and Other Ethnic Minorities at Increased Risk
BALTIMORE, April 4, 2008 /PRNewswire/ -- Newly published data by Dr. J.
Barthelow Classen in The Open Endocrinology Journal shows a 50% reduction of
type 2 diabetes occurred in Japanese children following the discontinuation of
a single vaccine, a vaccine to prevent tuberculosis. This decline occurred at
a time when there is a global epidemic of type 2 diabetes and metabolic
syndrome, which includes obesity, altered blood cholesterol levels, high blood
pressure, and increased blood glucose resulting from insulin resistance.
Classen proposes a new explanation for the epidemic of both insulin
dependent diabetes (type 1 diabetes), which has previously been shown to be
caused by vaccines and non insulin dependent diabetes (type 2 diabetes). Upon
receipt of vaccines or other strong immune stimulants some individuals develop
a hyperactive immune system leading to autoimmune destruction of insulin
secreting cells. Other individuals produce increased cortisol, an immune
suppressing hormone, to suppress the vaccine induced inflammation. The
increased cortisol leads to type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Japanese
children have increased cortisol secretion following immunization compared to
White children and this explains why Japanese have a relative high rate of
type 2 diabetes but low rate of insulin dependent diabetes compared to Whites.
The lower cortisol response attributed to type 1 diabetes and the higher
cortisol response attributed to type 2 diabetes explains why type 1 diabetics
are generally leaner than type 2 diabetics since elevated cortisol causes
weight gain.
"The current data shows that vaccines are much more dangerous than the
public is lead to believe and adequate testing has never been performed even
in healthy subjects to indicate that there is an overall improvement in health
from immunization. The current practice of vaccinating diabetics as well as
their close family members is a very risky practice," says Dr. J. Barthelow
Classen.
Classen's research has become widely accepted. To view the published
papers and to find out the latest information on the effects of vaccines on
autoimmune diseases including insulin dependent diabetes visit the Vaccine
Safety Web site www.vaccines.net/newpage11.htm
Classen Immunotherapies, Inc.
6517 Montrose Avenue Baltimore, MD 21212 U.S.A.
Tel: (410) 377-8526 Classen@vaccines.net
vaccines.net
SOURCE Classen Immunotherapies, Inc.
Classen Immunotherapies, Inc., +1-410-377-8526, Classen@vaccines.net
Metabolic Syndrome
Japanese and Other Ethnic Minorities at Increased Risk
BALTIMORE, April 4, 2008 /PRNewswire/ -- Newly published data by Dr. J.
Barthelow Classen in The Open Endocrinology Journal shows a 50% reduction of
type 2 diabetes occurred in Japanese children following the discontinuation of
a single vaccine, a vaccine to prevent tuberculosis. This decline occurred at
a time when there is a global epidemic of type 2 diabetes and metabolic
syndrome, which includes obesity, altered blood cholesterol levels, high blood
pressure, and increased blood glucose resulting from insulin resistance.
Classen proposes a new explanation for the epidemic of both insulin
dependent diabetes (type 1 diabetes), which has previously been shown to be
caused by vaccines and non insulin dependent diabetes (type 2 diabetes). Upon
receipt of vaccines or other strong immune stimulants some individuals develop
a hyperactive immune system leading to autoimmune destruction of insulin
secreting cells. Other individuals produce increased cortisol, an immune
suppressing hormone, to suppress the vaccine induced inflammation. The
increased cortisol leads to type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Japanese
children have increased cortisol secretion following immunization compared to
White children and this explains why Japanese have a relative high rate of
type 2 diabetes but low rate of insulin dependent diabetes compared to Whites.
The lower cortisol response attributed to type 1 diabetes and the higher
cortisol response attributed to type 2 diabetes explains why type 1 diabetics
are generally leaner than type 2 diabetics since elevated cortisol causes
weight gain.
"The current data shows that vaccines are much more dangerous than the
public is lead to believe and adequate testing has never been performed even
in healthy subjects to indicate that there is an overall improvement in health
from immunization. The current practice of vaccinating diabetics as well as
their close family members is a very risky practice," says Dr. J. Barthelow
Classen.
Classen's research has become widely accepted. To view the published
papers and to find out the latest information on the effects of vaccines on
autoimmune diseases including insulin dependent diabetes visit the Vaccine
Safety Web site www.vaccines.net/newpage11.htm
Classen Immunotherapies, Inc.
6517 Montrose Avenue Baltimore, MD 21212 U.S.A.
Tel: (410) 377-8526 Classen@vaccines.net
vaccines.net
SOURCE Classen Immunotherapies, Inc.
Classen Immunotherapies, Inc., +1-410-377-8526, Classen@vaccines.net
Don't understand the link between cortisol and Diabetes? Neither did I.
Read this:
Read this:
Quote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol#Effects
Insulin
Cortisol counteracts insulin by increasing gluconeogenesis and promotes breakdown of lipids (lipolysis), and proteins, and mobilization of extrahepatic amino acids and ketone bodies. This leads to increased circulating glucose concentrations (in the blood) by increasing gluconeogenesis. There is an increased glycogen breakdown in the liver.[3] Prolonged cortisol secretion causes hyperglycemia. Cortisol has no effect on insulin.[4] The reason why in vivo experiments seem to deny this is that cortisone (a cortisol metabolite) greatly inhibits insulin. So the cortisone-cortisol equilibrium may explain why in vivo experiments contradict the cortisol effect.[5] Cortisol does cause serum glucose to rise, but this is probably an indirect effect caused by stimulation of amino acid degradation, especially that derived from collagen in the skin. Loss of collagen from skin by cortisol is ten times greater than from all other tissue in the rat.[6]
One last thing, that's rather ironic. Diabetes makes you more susceptible to Tuberculosis, so let's assume the vaccine did protect you against Tuberculosis, the effect is countered by the fact that the vaccine causes Diabetes.Insulin
Cortisol counteracts insulin by increasing gluconeogenesis and promotes breakdown of lipids (lipolysis), and proteins, and mobilization of extrahepatic amino acids and ketone bodies. This leads to increased circulating glucose concentrations (in the blood) by increasing gluconeogenesis. There is an increased glycogen breakdown in the liver.[3] Prolonged cortisol secretion causes hyperglycemia. Cortisol has no effect on insulin.[4] The reason why in vivo experiments seem to deny this is that cortisone (a cortisol metabolite) greatly inhibits insulin. So the cortisone-cortisol equilibrium may explain why in vivo experiments contradict the cortisol effect.[5] Cortisol does cause serum glucose to rise, but this is probably an indirect effect caused by stimulation of amino acid degradation, especially that derived from collagen in the skin. Loss of collagen from skin by cortisol is ten times greater than from all other tissue in the rat.[6]
Quote
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#Epidemiology
There are a number of known factors that make people more susceptible to TB infection: worldwide the most important of these is HIV. Co-infection with HIV is a particular problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to the high incidence of HIV in these countries.[56][66] Smoking more than 20 cigarettes a day also increases the risk of TB by two to four times.[67][68] Diabetes mellitus is also an important risk factor that is growing in importance in developing countries.[69] Other disease states that increase the risk of developing tuberculosis are Hodgkin lymphoma, end-stage renal disease, chronic lung disease, malnutrition, and alcoholism. [1]
There are a number of known factors that make people more susceptible to TB infection: worldwide the most important of these is HIV. Co-infection with HIV is a particular problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to the high incidence of HIV in these countries.[56][66] Smoking more than 20 cigarettes a day also increases the risk of TB by two to four times.[67][68] Diabetes mellitus is also an important risk factor that is growing in importance in developing countries.[69] Other disease states that increase the risk of developing tuberculosis are Hodgkin lymphoma, end-stage renal disease, chronic lung disease, malnutrition, and alcoholism. [1]
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/319/7217/1133
Influenza vaccine:
http://www.webmd.com/news/20000613/hepatitis-b-vaccine-linked-to-onset-of-diabetes
Influenza vaccine:
Quote
EDITOR---We initiated and funded a collaborative study with Tuomilehto on the effect of the Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine on type 1 diabetes and found that the data support a causal relation (paper submitted for publication). Furthermore, the potential risk of the vaccine exceeds the potential benefit. We compared a group that received four doses of the vaccine, a group that received one dose, and a group that was not vaccinated. The cumulative incidence of diabetes per 100 000 in the three groups receiving four, one, and no doses of the vaccine was 261, 237, and 207 at age 7 and 398, 376, and 340 at age 10 respectively.
Karvonen et al's analysis is not rational, and their conclusion is not supported by our data.1 Their calculations of relative risk are also misleadingly low, and we urge readers to check them. Most researchers would compare the group who received four doses with the group that was not vaccinated or the two vaccinated groups with the group that was not vaccinated. The results of both comparisons reach significance. The cumulative difference in cases of type 1 diabetes per100 000 between those receiving four doses and those who were not vaccinated is 54 cases (P=0.013) at 7 years and 58 cases at 10 years (P=0.029; single tail Fisher test). The relative risk is 1.26 at 7 years. The cumulative difference between those receiving four doses or one dose of the vaccine and those who were not vaccinated is 42 cases (P=0.016) at 7 years and 47 cases at 10 years (P=0.028).
The rise in diabetes, just one potential adverse effect, exceeds the benefit of the vaccine, which has been estimated to prevent seven deaths and 7-26 cases of severe disability per 100 000 children immunised.2 Even the difference in cases of diabetes between the groups receiving four doses and one dose exceeds the mean expected benefit. Temporal changes in the incidence of diabetes do not explain the differences since there were an extra 31 cases of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 children aged 5-10, and the incidence of diabetes in this group had been stable for about 10 years before this.3 Furthermore, sharp rises in diabetes have been recorded in the United States4 and the United Kingdom5 after the introduction of the haemophilus vaccine.
Public health officials want to avoid scaring the public, but they risk depriving damaged children of compensation. Denials of safety issues may erode public confidence, especially since diabetes induced by the vaccine may be avoided by starting vaccination a few weeks earlier.
J Barthelow Classen, president.
Classen Immunotherapies, 6517 Montrose Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21212, USA Classen@vaccines.net
David C Classen, infectious disease physician.
Division of Infectious Diseases, LDS Hospital, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
a Competing interests: Methods used in the authors' research (including methods of testing vaccines for the induction of diabetes and methods of giving vaccines without inducing diabetes) are covered by patents owned by Classen Immunotherapies. Dr John Classen holds shares in Classen Immunotherapies; Dr David Classen owns no shares in the company, receives no funding from it, and has no financial ties to it or this research.
1. Karvonen M, Cepaitis Z, Tuomilehto J. Association between type 1 diabetes and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination: birth cohort study. BMJ 1999; 318: 1169-1172[Abstract/Free Full Text]. (1 May.)
2. Peltola H, Kayhty H, Sivonen A, Makela H. Hemophilus influenza type B capsular polysaccharide vaccine in children: a double blind field study of 100 000 vaccinees 3 months to 5 years of age in Finland. Pediatrics 1977; 60: 730-737[Abstract/Free Full Text].
3. Tuomilehto J, Virtala E, Karvonen M, Lounamen R, Pitkaniemi J, Reunanen A, et al. Increase in incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus among children in Finland. Int J Epidemiol 1995; 24: 984-992[Abstract/Free Full Text].
4. Dokheel TM. An epidemic of childhood diabetes in the United States. Diabetes Care 1993; 16: 1606-1611[Abstract].
5. Gardner S, Bingley PJ, Sawtell PA, Weeks S, Gale EA. Rising incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children under 5 years in Oxford region: time trend analysis. BMJ 1997; 315: 713-716[Abstract/Free Full Text].
Hepatitis vaccine:Karvonen et al's analysis is not rational, and their conclusion is not supported by our data.1 Their calculations of relative risk are also misleadingly low, and we urge readers to check them. Most researchers would compare the group who received four doses with the group that was not vaccinated or the two vaccinated groups with the group that was not vaccinated. The results of both comparisons reach significance. The cumulative difference in cases of type 1 diabetes per100 000 between those receiving four doses and those who were not vaccinated is 54 cases (P=0.013) at 7 years and 58 cases at 10 years (P=0.029; single tail Fisher test). The relative risk is 1.26 at 7 years. The cumulative difference between those receiving four doses or one dose of the vaccine and those who were not vaccinated is 42 cases (P=0.016) at 7 years and 47 cases at 10 years (P=0.028).
The rise in diabetes, just one potential adverse effect, exceeds the benefit of the vaccine, which has been estimated to prevent seven deaths and 7-26 cases of severe disability per 100 000 children immunised.2 Even the difference in cases of diabetes between the groups receiving four doses and one dose exceeds the mean expected benefit. Temporal changes in the incidence of diabetes do not explain the differences since there were an extra 31 cases of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 children aged 5-10, and the incidence of diabetes in this group had been stable for about 10 years before this.3 Furthermore, sharp rises in diabetes have been recorded in the United States4 and the United Kingdom5 after the introduction of the haemophilus vaccine.
Public health officials want to avoid scaring the public, but they risk depriving damaged children of compensation. Denials of safety issues may erode public confidence, especially since diabetes induced by the vaccine may be avoided by starting vaccination a few weeks earlier.
J Barthelow Classen, president.
Classen Immunotherapies, 6517 Montrose Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21212, USA Classen@vaccines.net
David C Classen, infectious disease physician.
Division of Infectious Diseases, LDS Hospital, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
a Competing interests: Methods used in the authors' research (including methods of testing vaccines for the induction of diabetes and methods of giving vaccines without inducing diabetes) are covered by patents owned by Classen Immunotherapies. Dr John Classen holds shares in Classen Immunotherapies; Dr David Classen owns no shares in the company, receives no funding from it, and has no financial ties to it or this research.
1. Karvonen M, Cepaitis Z, Tuomilehto J. Association between type 1 diabetes and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination: birth cohort study. BMJ 1999; 318: 1169-1172[Abstract/Free Full Text]. (1 May.)
2. Peltola H, Kayhty H, Sivonen A, Makela H. Hemophilus influenza type B capsular polysaccharide vaccine in children: a double blind field study of 100 000 vaccinees 3 months to 5 years of age in Finland. Pediatrics 1977; 60: 730-737[Abstract/Free Full Text].
3. Tuomilehto J, Virtala E, Karvonen M, Lounamen R, Pitkaniemi J, Reunanen A, et al. Increase in incidence of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus among children in Finland. Int J Epidemiol 1995; 24: 984-992[Abstract/Free Full Text].
4. Dokheel TM. An epidemic of childhood diabetes in the United States. Diabetes Care 1993; 16: 1606-1611[Abstract].
5. Gardner S, Bingley PJ, Sawtell PA, Weeks S, Gale EA. Rising incidence of insulin dependent diabetes in children under 5 years in Oxford region: time trend analysis. BMJ 1997; 315: 713-716[Abstract/Free Full Text].
http://www.webmd.com/news/20000613/hepatitis-b-vaccine-linked-to-onset-of-diabetes
Quote
WebMD Health News
June 13, 2000 (San Antonio) -- Faced with an ever-growing list of required and recommended vaccinations for children -- as well as occasional reports of safety problems linked to vaccines -- many parents understandably feel confused. No doubt adding to that confusion are reports that the vaccine against hepatitis B, a blood-borne illness that can cause liver cancer, may actually lead to the development of type 1 diabetes in children.
Type 1 diabetes is the form where the body doesn?t make the insulin it needs. An Italian study presented here at the annual meeting of the American Diabetes Association suggests that children who get the hepatitis B vaccine are at greater risk for developing type 1 disease than those who have never been vaccinated. On the basis of their research, Paolo Pozzilli, MD, and colleagues say doctors should exercise caution in giving the vaccine to children who have close relatives with type 1 diabetes.
But because type 1 diabetes is relatively rare in the overall population, thorough studies involving several hundred thousand participants are needed to prove a solid link, says Marion Rewers, MD, who was not involved in the study. So the jury is still out, he says.
"The possibility of a link between hepatitis B vaccine [and type 1 diabetes] is an interesting research area and has been recognized as such by a number of investigators across the world," he tells WebMD. He says that at two recent meetings, researchers "were in unanimous agreement that there was no association. We need a monitoring system, so that if an association is found in the future, it can be promptly identified." Rewers, a pediatric endocrinologist, is a professor of pediatrics and preventive medicine at the University of Colorado in Denver and chair of the ADA council on epidemiology and statistics.
The CDC recommends that the hepatitis B vaccine be a part of routine vaccination schedules for U.S. infants.
The hepatitis B vaccine is now required in Italy, says Pozzilli, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Rome. Further, there is a low, relatively stable rate of type 1 diabetes there. These conditions allowed the researchers to compare the rate of diabetes in vaccinated children with that in unvaccinated groups.
Investigators compared 150,000 children who had been vaccinated at age 3 months to an equal number of unvaccinated children. To assess the risk of developing type 1 diabetes in children who got the vaccine later, after vaccination became mandatory in Italy, 400,000 children who were vaccinated at age 12 were compared with children who had not been vaccinated.
In the group as a whole, the rates of type 1 diabetes were 46 per 100,000 for children who had been vaccinated and 34 per 100,000 for children who had not. For those vaccinated at age 12, the rates were 17.8 per 100,000 for vaccinated children and 6.9 per 100,000 for unvaccinated children.
Although these may seem like large groups to study, they are not big enough for scientists to see clear patterns for type 1 diabetes, Rewers says. For a study like this to have value, the database should involve as many as 250,000 people in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, he says.
"Caution is necessary when the potential of vaccine-related risks is studied," Rewers tells WebMD. "Without sound supportive data, [parents] can become unduly alarmed and stop immunizing their children." When immunization rates drop, diseases that can cause serious illness -- and death -- return, he tells WebMD.
The National Institutes of Health and the CDC are jointly establishing a system known as "sentinel monitoring areas," Rewers tells WebMD. The agencies will track the rate of type 1 diabetes in these areas -- consisting of selected counties in the U.S. -- and will determine whether the rate is related to things like immunizations, recommended infant feeding schedules, and outbreaks of infection.
Rewers has not been involved with the development of any vaccine and has no ties to any company that manufactures vaccines.
}}Although these may seem like large groups to study, they are not big enough for scientists to see clear patterns for type 1 diabetes, Rewers says. For a study like this to have value, the database should involve as many as 250,000 people in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, he says.
"Caution is necessary when the potential of vaccine-related risks is studied," Rewers tells WebMD. "Without sound supportive data, [parents] can become unduly alarmed and stop immunizing their children." When immunization rates drop, diseases that can cause serious illness -- and death -- return, he tells WebMD.
The National Institutes of Health and the CDC are jointly establishing a system known as "sentinel monitoring areas," Rewers tells WebMD. The agencies will track the rate of type 1 diabetes in these areas -- consisting of selected counties in the U.S. -- and will determine whether the rate is related to things like immunizations, recommended infant feeding schedules, and outbreaks of infection.
Rewers has not been involved with the development of any vaccine and has no ties to any company that manufactures vaccines.
June 13, 2000 (San Antonio) -- Faced with an ever-growing list of required and recommended vaccinations for children -- as well as occasional reports of safety problems linked to vaccines -- many parents understandably feel confused. No doubt adding to that confusion are reports that the vaccine against hepatitis B, a blood-borne illness that can cause liver cancer, may actually lead to the development of type 1 diabetes in children.
Type 1 diabetes is the form where the body doesn?t make the insulin it needs. An Italian study presented here at the annual meeting of the American Diabetes Association suggests that children who get the hepatitis B vaccine are at greater risk for developing type 1 disease than those who have never been vaccinated. On the basis of their research, Paolo Pozzilli, MD, and colleagues say doctors should exercise caution in giving the vaccine to children who have close relatives with type 1 diabetes.
But because type 1 diabetes is relatively rare in the overall population, thorough studies involving several hundred thousand participants are needed to prove a solid link, says Marion Rewers, MD, who was not involved in the study. So the jury is still out, he says.
"The possibility of a link between hepatitis B vaccine [and type 1 diabetes] is an interesting research area and has been recognized as such by a number of investigators across the world," he tells WebMD. He says that at two recent meetings, researchers "were in unanimous agreement that there was no association. We need a monitoring system, so that if an association is found in the future, it can be promptly identified." Rewers, a pediatric endocrinologist, is a professor of pediatrics and preventive medicine at the University of Colorado in Denver and chair of the ADA council on epidemiology and statistics.
The CDC recommends that the hepatitis B vaccine be a part of routine vaccination schedules for U.S. infants.
The hepatitis B vaccine is now required in Italy, says Pozzilli, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Rome. Further, there is a low, relatively stable rate of type 1 diabetes there. These conditions allowed the researchers to compare the rate of diabetes in vaccinated children with that in unvaccinated groups.
Investigators compared 150,000 children who had been vaccinated at age 3 months to an equal number of unvaccinated children. To assess the risk of developing type 1 diabetes in children who got the vaccine later, after vaccination became mandatory in Italy, 400,000 children who were vaccinated at age 12 were compared with children who had not been vaccinated.
In the group as a whole, the rates of type 1 diabetes were 46 per 100,000 for children who had been vaccinated and 34 per 100,000 for children who had not. For those vaccinated at age 12, the rates were 17.8 per 100,000 for vaccinated children and 6.9 per 100,000 for unvaccinated children.
Although these may seem like large groups to study, they are not big enough for scientists to see clear patterns for type 1 diabetes, Rewers says. For a study like this to have value, the database should involve as many as 250,000 people in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, he says.
"Caution is necessary when the potential of vaccine-related risks is studied," Rewers tells WebMD. "Without sound supportive data, [parents] can become unduly alarmed and stop immunizing their children." When immunization rates drop, diseases that can cause serious illness -- and death -- return, he tells WebMD.
The National Institutes of Health and the CDC are jointly establishing a system known as "sentinel monitoring areas," Rewers tells WebMD. The agencies will track the rate of type 1 diabetes in these areas -- consisting of selected counties in the U.S. -- and will determine whether the rate is related to things like immunizations, recommended infant feeding schedules, and outbreaks of infection.
Rewers has not been involved with the development of any vaccine and has no ties to any company that manufactures vaccines.
}}Although these may seem like large groups to study, they are not big enough for scientists to see clear patterns for type 1 diabetes, Rewers says. For a study like this to have value, the database should involve as many as 250,000 people in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, he says.
"Caution is necessary when the potential of vaccine-related risks is studied," Rewers tells WebMD. "Without sound supportive data, [parents] can become unduly alarmed and stop immunizing their children." When immunization rates drop, diseases that can cause serious illness -- and death -- return, he tells WebMD.
The National Institutes of Health and the CDC are jointly establishing a system known as "sentinel monitoring areas," Rewers tells WebMD. The agencies will track the rate of type 1 diabetes in these areas -- consisting of selected counties in the U.S. -- and will determine whether the rate is related to things like immunizations, recommended infant feeding schedules, and outbreaks of infection.
Rewers has not been involved with the development of any vaccine and has no ties to any company that manufactures vaccines.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14532317
Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States.
Narayan KM, Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Sorensen SW, Williamson DF.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, Ga, USA. kav4@cdc.gov
CONTEXT: Although diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence in 2000. US Census Bureau data and data from a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates for diabetic and nondiabetic populations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Residual (remaining) lifetime risk of diabetes (from birth to 80 years in 1-year intervals), duration with diabetes, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years lost from diabetes. RESULTS: The estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in 2000 is 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females have higher residual lifetime risks at all ages. The highest estimated lifetime risk for diabetes is among Hispanics (males, 45.4% and females, 52.5%). Individuals diagnosed as having diabetes have large reductions in life expectancy. For example, we estimate that if an individual is diagnosed at age 40 years, men will lose 11.6 life-years and 18.6 quality-adjusted life-years and women will lose 14.3 life-years and 22.0 quality-adjusted life-years. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial. Primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.
Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States.
Narayan KM, Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Sorensen SW, Williamson DF.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Diabetes Translation, Atlanta, Ga, USA. kav4@cdc.gov
CONTEXT: Although diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence in 2000. US Census Bureau data and data from a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates for diabetic and nondiabetic populations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Residual (remaining) lifetime risk of diabetes (from birth to 80 years in 1-year intervals), duration with diabetes, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years lost from diabetes. RESULTS: The estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in 2000 is 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females have higher residual lifetime risks at all ages. The highest estimated lifetime risk for diabetes is among Hispanics (males, 45.4% and females, 52.5%). Individuals diagnosed as having diabetes have large reductions in life expectancy. For example, we estimate that if an individual is diagnosed at age 40 years, men will lose 11.6 life-years and 18.6 quality-adjusted life-years and women will lose 14.3 life-years and 22.0 quality-adjusted life-years. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial. Primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.
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